| 1. Identity statement | ||||
| Reference Type | Journal Article | |||
| Site | mtc-m21c.sid.inpe.br | |||
| Holder Code | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S | |||
| Identifier | 8JMKD3MGP3W34R/3TUDMQE | |||
| Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21c/2019/09.02.12.20 (restricted access) | |||
| Last Update | 2019:09.02.12.20.29 (UTC) simone | |||
| Metadata Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21c/2019/09.02.12.20.29 | |||
| Metadata Last Update | 2024:01.23.16.02.51 (UTC) simone | |||
| DOI | 10.1111/gcb.14709 | |||
| ISSN | 1354-1013 | |||
| Citation Key | FonsecaAAAARSA:2019:EfClLa | |||
| Title | Effects of climate and land‐use change scenarios on fire probability during the 21st century in the Brazilian Amazon  | |||
| Year | 2019 | |||
| Month | Sept. | |||
| Access Date | 2024, May 24 | |||
| Type of Work | journal article | |||
| Secondary Type | PRE PI | |||
| Number of Files | 1 | |||
| Size | 1967 KiB | |||
| 2. Context | ||||
| Author | 1 Fonseca, Marisa Gesteira 2 Alves, Lincoln Muniz 3 Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra 4 Arai, Egidio 5 Anderson, Liana Oighenstein 6 Rosan, Thais Michele 7 Shimabukuro, Yosio Edemir 8 Aragão, Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e Cruz de | |||
| Resume Identifier | 1 2 3 4 8JMKD3MGP5W/3C9JGUP 5 6 7 8JMKD3MGP5W/3C9JJCQ | |||
| ORCID | 1 0000-0001-6453-2215 2 0000-0001-8259-2262 3 0000-0002-0683-1142 4 0000-0003-1994-5277 5 0000-0001-9545-5136 6 0000-0003-0155-1739 7 0000-0002-1469-8433 8 0000-0002-4134-6708 | |||
| Group | 1 DIDSR-CGOBT-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR 2 COCST-COCST-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR 3 COCST-COCST-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR 4 DIDSR-CGOBT-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR 5 6 SER-SRE-SESPG-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR 7 DIDSR-CGOBT-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR 8 DIDSR-CGOBT-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR | |||
| Affiliation | 1 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 2 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 3 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 4 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 5 Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN) 6 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 7 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 8 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) | |||
| Author e-Mail Address | 1 marisa_fonseca@yahoo.com.br 2 lincoln.alves@inpe.br 3 ana.aguiar@inpe.br 4 egidio.arai@inpe.br 5 6 thais.rosan@inpe.br 7 yosio.shimabukuro@inpe.br 8 luiz.aragao@inpe.br | |||
| Journal | Global Change Biology | |||
| Volume | 25 | |||
| Number | 9 | |||
| Pages | 2931-2946 | |||
| Secondary Mark | A1_MEDICINA_I A1_INTERDISCIPLINAR A1_GEOGRAFIA A1_GEOCIÊNCIAS A1_ENGENHARIAS_III A1_CIÊNCIAS_BIOLÓGICAS_I A1_CIÊNCIAS_AMBIENTAIS A1_CIÊNCIAS_AGRÁRIAS_I A1_BIODIVERSIDADE A2_PLANEJAMENTO_URBANO_E_REGIONAL_/_DEMOGRAFIA A2_ASTRONOMIA_/_FÍSICA B1_EDUCAÇÃO C_ENGENHARIAS_II | |||
| History (UTC) | 2019-09-02 12:20:29 :: simone -> administrator :: 2019-09-02 12:20:30 :: administrator -> simone :: 2019 2019-09-02 12:21:55 :: simone -> administrator :: 2019 2020-01-06 11:42:18 :: administrator -> simone :: 2019 | |||
| 3. Content and structure | ||||
| Is the master or a copy? | is the master | |||
| Content Stage | completed | |||
| Transferable | 1 | |||
| Content Type | External Contribution | |||
| Version Type | publisher | |||
| Keywords | fire modeling forest degradation hot pixels maximum entropy representative concentration pathway tropical forest | |||
| Abstract | The joint and relative effects of future land-use and climate change on fire occurrence in the Amazon, as well its seasonal variation, are still poorly understood, despite its recognized importance. Using the maximum entropy method (MaxEnt), we combined regional land-use projections and climatic data from the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble to investigate the monthly probability of fire occurrence in the mid (2041-2070) and late (2071-2100) 21st century in the Brazilian Amazon. We found striking spatial variation in the fire relative probability (FRP) change along the months, with October showing the highest overall change. Considering climate only, the area with FRP >= 0.3 (a threshold chosen based on the literature) in October increases 6.9% by 2071-2100 compared to the baseline period under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 27.7% under the RCP 8.5. The best-case land-use scenario ("Sustainability") alone causes a 10.6% increase in the area with FRP >= 0.3, while the worse-case land-use scenario ("Fragmentation") causes a 73.2% increase. The optimistic climate-land-use projection (Sustainability and RCP 4.5) causes a 21.3% increase in the area with FRP >= 0.3 in October by 2071-2100 compared to the baseline period. In contrast, the most pessimistic climate-land-use projection (Fragmentation and RCP 8.5) causes a widespread increase in FRP (113.5% increase in the area with FRP >= 0.3), and prolongs the fire season, displacing its peak. Combining the Sustainability land-use and RCP 8.5 scenarios causes a 39.1% increase in the area with FRP >= 0.3. We conclude that avoiding the regress on land-use governance in the Brazilian Amazon (i.e., decrease in the extension and level of conservation of the protected areas, reduced environmental laws enforcement, extensive road paving, and increased deforestation) would substantially mitigate the effects of climate change on fire probability, even under the most pessimistic RCP 8.5 scenario. | |||
| Area | SRE | |||
| Arrangement 1 | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDSR > Effects of climate... | |||
| Arrangement 2 | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção pgr ATUAIS > SER > Effects of climate... | |||
| Arrangement 3 | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > COCST > Effects of climate... | |||
| doc Directory Content | access | |||
| source Directory Content | there are no files | |||
| agreement Directory Content |
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| 4. Conditions of access and use | ||||
| Language | en | |||
| Target File | Fonseca_et_al-2019-Global_Change_Biology.pdf | |||
| User Group | simone | |||
| Reader Group | administrator simone | |||
| Visibility | shown | |||
| Archiving Policy | denypublisher denyfinaldraft | |||
| Read Permission | deny from all and allow from 150.163 | |||
| Update Permission | not transferred | |||
| 5. Allied materials | ||||
| Next Higher Units | 8JMKD3MGPCW/3ER446E 8JMKD3MGPCW/3F3NU5S 8JMKD3MGPCW/3F3T29H | |||
| Citing Item List | sid.inpe.br/bibdigital/2013/10.18.22.34 8 sid.inpe.br/bibdigital/2013/10.19.20.40 5 sid.inpe.br/bibdigital/2013/09.13.21.11 3 | |||
| Dissemination | WEBSCI; PORTALCAPES; SCOPUS. | |||
| Host Collection | urlib.net/www/2017/11.22.19.04 | |||
| 6. Notes | ||||
| Notes | Prêmio CAPES Elsevier 2023 - ODS 15: Vida terrestre | |||
| Empty Fields | alternatejournal archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel e-mailaddress format isbn label lineage mark mirrorrepository nextedition parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarykey session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark tertiarytype url | |||
| 7. Description control | ||||
| e-Mail (login) | simone | |||
| update | ||||